Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 1.364573 1.433623 1.505094 1.584764 1.671297 1.762666 1.866728
2025-11-02 1.254634 1.351729 1.456361 1.578135 1.716785 1.870726 2.055970
2025-11-09 1.173718 1.284963 1.407994 1.555320 1.728523 1.927711 2.177143
2025-11-16 1.110423 1.230805 1.366663 1.533069 1.733845 1.971569 2.279509
2025-11-23 1.069217 1.198070 1.346113 1.531162 1.759785 2.037918 2.410015
2025-11-30 1.040061 1.176921 1.336747 1.540313 1.797469 2.118533 2.561827
2025-12-07 1.001032 1.141549 1.307775 1.522697 1.799141 2.151742 2.651665
2025-12-14 0.960802 1.102694 1.272353 1.494492 1.784622 2.161536 2.708463
2025-12-21 0.930873 1.075048 1.249260 1.480225 1.786543 2.191967 2.794494
2025-12-28 0.916141 1.065398 1.247878 1.493223 1.824329 2.272068 2.956392
2026-01-04 0.895453 1.047345 1.234866 1.489982 1.839403 2.320718 3.074646
2026-01-11 0.883700 1.040008 1.235028 1.503772 1.877902 2.403971 3.251286
2026-01-18 0.865088 1.023797 1.223711 1.502450 1.896365 2.461022 3.394945
2026-01-25 0.846080 1.006468 1.210287 1.497599 1.909417 2.510681 3.531113
2026-02-01 0.821929 0.981630 1.185971 1.476488 1.897562 2.521385 3.602367
2026-02-08 0.799433 0.958287 1.162841 1.455991 1.885358 2.530361 3.670688
2026-02-15 0.785292 0.945508 1.153402 1.454232 1.900524 2.582528 3.818926
2026-02-22 0.775703 0.938424 1.151328 1.462667 1.931088 2.660667 4.021442
2026-03-01 0.757775 0.919676 1.132692 1.446427 1.923007 2.675114 4.106155
2026-03-08 0.737241 0.896934 1.107937 1.420407 1.898580 2.660919 4.134260
2026-03-15 0.722091 0.881118 1.092339 1.407237 1.893547 2.678756 4.226489
2026-03-22 0.716209 0.877711 1.093844 1.419236 1.928542 2.766519 4.468130
2026-03-29 0.705612 0.867567 1.085564 1.416244 1.939242 2.812555 4.628516